GLOBE-Net, September 25, 2013 – On Friday, September 27, the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) will present the summary of its latest assessment report.
“This is a chance to steer the climate conversation in a more realistic and constructive direction,” comments Dr. Bjorn Lomborg, adjunct professor at the Copenhagen Business School and director of the Copenhagen Consensus Center.
The report’s June draft shows similar temperature rises to earlier reports, at about 1.0-3.7°C (1.8 to 6.6°F) by the end of the century. For sea-level rise, the IPCC now includes modeling of glacier responses of 3-20 centimeters (1-8 inches), leading to a higher total estimate of 40-62 cm (1.5 feet to 2 feet) by century’s end.
According to Dr. Lomborg, “this shows that the IPCC’s predictions do not support alarmist predictions of global temperature rise that are often in the order of 5°C (9°F) and 1-2 meters (3-6 feet) of sea level rise — not to mention Al Gore’s 6 meters (20 feet).” [stextbox id=”custom” float=”true” align=”right” width=”300″ bcolor=”e5e5e5″ bgcolor=”e5e5e5″ image=”null”]While panic is a great way to raise awareness and to win votes, it is a terrible starting point for making smart policies.” Bjorn Lomborg[/stextbox] “These sensible and moderate findings contradict the alarmist rhetoric,” Dr. Lomborg continues. “The past 15-20 years of little or no temperature rise reinforce this moderate climate change message.”
“Since 1980, the models have overestimated actual temperature rise by 71-159%. This does not mean there is no global warming. It just makes the alarmist scenarios ever more implausible,” Lomborg says.
“Yes, the IPCC substantiates that global warming is a problem, but the report contains none of the media’s typically apocalyptic scenarios, no alarmism, and no demands from natural scientists to cut emissions by X% or to hand out lavish subsidies on solar panels.”
Dr. Lomborg concludes, “The biggest chance for this new report is to change the climate conversation from being dominated by end-of-the-world thinking to focusing on global warming being a problem.”
“While panic is a great way to raise awareness and to win votes, it is a terrible starting point for making smart policies. The European Union will pay $250 billion for its current climate policies each and every year until the end of the century. For almost $20 trillion, temperatures will be reduced by a negligible 0.05°C (0.1°F).”
Instead of continuing their focus on carbon taxes and subsidies for renewables, Lomborg calls political decision-makers to pursue a new approach to tackle climate change.
“What we need is investment in research and development to reduce green energy’s cost and boost its scale. When solar and other green technologies can take over cheaply, we will have addressed global warming,” he concludes.
Bjorn Lomborg ( www.lomborg.com) is director of the Copenhagen Consensus Center and one of Foreign Policy’s Top 100 Global Thinkers.
‘Climate Adaptation – Delay is Not an Option’ is a major Theme of GLOBE 2014, the next in the celebrated GLOBE Series of Conferences and Trade Fairs on the business of the environment taking place in Vancouver Canada, March 26-28, 2014. Reserve your place now. Check here for more details.